تاثیر بحران اوکراین بر روابط ایران، چین و روسیه – حسین موسویان – تدبیر خبر – سه شنبه ۲۷ اسفند ۱۳۹۲
بحران اوکراین میتواند روابط روسیه، ایران و چین را تقویت کند
به گزارش گروه بینالملل خبرگزاری تسنیم؛ سید حسین موسویان، در یادداشتی در وبسایت خبری تحلیلی المانیتور به بررسی تأثیر بحران اخیر اوکراین و تنش در روابط بین روسیه و غرب بر پیوندهای ایران و روسیه پرداخته و مینویسد:
تنشها بین روسیه وغرب از زمانی که ویکتور یانکوویچ، رئیسجمهور روسیهگرای کشور، در 21 فوریه از کار برکنار شده، شدیدتر شدهاند. زمانی که دولت محلی شبهجزیره کریمه به همراه 60 درصد از ساکنانش که خود را روسی میخوانند، خواهان رفراندوم جدایی کریمه از اوکراین شدند، بحران به اوج خود رسید. در حالی که ناظرین بنبست کنونی بحران را به عنوان عمیقترین جنگ فرا سرد بین غرب و مسکو میدانند، بنبست بر سر برنامه هستهای ایران نیز چالشی بزرگ برای روابط ایران و غرب است.
بحران اوکراین میتواند روابط روسیه، ایران و چین را تقویت کند – حسین موسویان – تسنیم – سه شنبه ۲۷ اسفند ۱۳۹۲
Ukraine crisis could strengthen Russia-Iran-China ties
Tensions between Russia and the West have simmered since Ukraine’s Russian-leaning president, Viktor Yanukovych, was ousted on Feb. 21. The crisis culminated when the Crimean Peninsula’s local government, with 60% of its inhabitants identifying themselves as ethnic Russians, called for a referendum on seceding the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. While observers view the current Ukraine standoff as the gravest post-Cold War between the West and Moscow, the impasse over Iran’s nuclear crisis is also considered the greatest challenge to Iran-West relations.
Iran will remain neutral in this conflict, despite that the crisis in Ukraine may result in a favorable outcome to its future including the standoff with the West over its nuclear program. A senior Iranian official said, “Iran would surely stay out of this dispute [over Ukraine].” However, the crisis in Ukraine could have possible impacts on Russia-Iran relations.
The Russian military intervention in Ukraine could result in NATO forces moving closer to Ukraine’s western borders. However, Russia is concerned that its withdrawal from Crimea may result in the West’s crawling of military forces toward the borders of Russia, thus jeopardizing its security and weakening its strategic depth. In the last two decades, Russia and Iran have been carefully watching the United States and NATO expanding their reach eastward by erecting military bases around the borders of the two countries, with near-total disregard for Moscow’s and Tehran’s legitimate security interests. In recent years, under Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule, both states have been resisting Western hegemony, seeking to mend their wounded pride and prestige and attempting to extricate themselves from what they perceived as a lack of international respect and influence. In 2005, Putin said that the fall of the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century. To give up on Ukraine and allow it to slip out of Russia’s orbit would be a monumental blow to Putin’s efforts for restoring Russia’s position in the international arena.
Since 2006, the United States has successfully amassed consensus among world powers with regard to Iran’s nuclear program, the outcome of which were UN sanction resolutions, followed by unilateral US and EU sanctions. Now, a persistent Ukrainian crisis may bring to bear a number of scenarios.
“Ukraine crisis could strengthen Russia-Iran-China ties,” Hossein Mousavian, Al Monitor, March 17, 2014.
چهار سناریوی موسویان برای رسیدن ایران و 1+5 به توافق
چهار سناریوی موسویان برای رسیدن ایران و 1+5 به توافق – حسین موسویان – ایسنا – یکشنبه ۲۵ اسفند ۱۳۹۲
چهار سناریو برای توافق نهایی هستهای ایران و 1+5
چهار سناریو برای توافق نهایی هستهای ایران و 1+5 – حسین موسویان – تی نیوز- شنبه ۲۴ اسفند ۱۳۹۲
۴ سناریو برای دستیابی به توافق نهایی هستهای
۴ سناریو برای دستیابی به توافق نهایی هستهای – حسین موسویان – افکار نیوز – یکشنبه ۲۵ اسفند ۱۳۹۲
چهار سناریو برای دستیابی به توافق نهایی هستهای
ه گزارش گروه بین الملل خبرگزاری تسنیم؛ سید حسین موسویان، مذاکره کننده پیشین هستهای ایران، طی یادداشتی در وبسایت الجزیره به چهار سناریویی میپردازد که ایران و قدرتهای جهانی میتوانند بر اساس آن به یک توافق جامع و نهایی دست یابند. وی می نویسد:
ایران و پنج عضو دائم شورای امنیت سازمان ملل به علاوه آلمان (گروه 1+5) سعی دارند تا جولای 2014 به توافقی جامع دست یافته و یک دهه معمای هستهای ایران را حل نمایند. ایران و قدرتهای جهان که ماه گذشته در وین دیدار کردند به پیشرفتی قابل توجه، شامل توافقی درباره یک چارچوب، برنامه عمل و نیز جدول زمانی برای دور بعدی گفتگوها دست یافتند.
با این حال، اختلافهای عمدهای بین دو طرف وجود دارند. کشورهای 1+5، بالاخص آمریکا، استراتژی اصلی خود را محدود کردن برنامه هستهای ایران قرار دادهاند، در حالی که ایران قصد دارد توافق را بر اساس شفافیت از طریق ارائه تضمینهایی درباره ماهیت صلحآمیز برنامه هستهایاش، به پیش برد.
چهار سناریو برای دستیابی به توافق نهایی هستهای – حسین موسویان – تسنیم – ۲۵ اسفند ۱۳۹۲
Four scenarios to strike a final nuclear deal with Iran
The world powers are seeking a consensus that allows Iran to retain only a small and indigenousuranium enrichment program.Therefore they want to impose significant physical limits on the heavy water facilities, the number and type of centrifuges, the level of enrichment, the amount of stockpiled enriched uranium and the number of Tehran’s nuclear enrichment facilities — as well as install enhanced monitoring and verification measures.
However, these are demands that go beyond existing international nonproliferation commitments, and Iran is unlikely to accept.
The world powers’ limiting strategy poses a risk of pushing Iran to abandon its agreement with the P5+1, expel the IAEA inspectors, disable the IAEA’s monitoring equipment and ultimately build bombs. The bottom line is, the possibility of military confrontation with Iran is real if negotiators cannot agree on a final deal. Such confrontation could unleash terrible regional and international consequences. The world powers and Iran consider the following four scenarios in order to secure a final deal.
First, making Iran’s fatwa, or edict, operational. Iran is committed to a religious decree issued by the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei that bans the production, stockpiling and use of all weapons of mass destruction. Respecting its rights to peaceful nuclear technology means that Iran would have no reason to leave the NPT. This eliminates fears of an abrupt shutdown of monitoring the country’s nuclear program, because Iran would not withdraw from the NPT. In such eventuality, Iran and the world powers would forgo the limiting issues and discuss only transparency measures in the final deal.
Second, cooperating on a broad range of issues, including Iran’s enormous energy demands and potential. Such engagement and cooperation would remove all anxieties, not least Iran’s security concerns and the world powers’ fear that the Iranian nuclear program will be diverted toward weaponization.
Third, setting a realistic scope on limits to Iran’s nuclear program. Instead of making impossible demands, such as the closure of Iran’s enrichment site in Fordow or heavy water facilities in Arak, Iran and the P5+1 should agree on realistic limits guaranteeing nonproliferation for a specific confidence-building period. This would enable the IAEA enough time to address all technical ambiguities on the Iranian nuclear program.
Finally, considering a comprehensive vision for a nuclear-free Persian Gulf and Middle East. To actualize such a broad agenda, the world powers should first seek an agreement with Iran acceptable to other regional countries and then use the final deal with Iran as a model for the entire region.
Toward that end, the International Panel for Fissile Material, a team of independent nuclear experts from 15 countries, has proposed sensible measures: a ban on the separation or use of plutonium and uranium-233, restrictions on the use of high enriched uranium as a reactor fuel, limitations on uranium enrichment to less than 6 percent and agreement to a just-in-time system of uranium production rather than stockpiling enriched uranium. Both sides should agree to Iran’s adopting these courses of action.
“Four scenarios to strike a final nuclear deal with Iran,” Hossein Mousavian, Al Jazeera America, March 15, 2014.
4توصیه برای دستیابی به توافق نهایی ایران و 1+5
4توصیه برای دستیابی به توافق نهایی ایران و 1+5 – حسین موسویان – تدبیر خبر – شنبه ۲۴ اسفند ۱۳۹۲
چهار سناریو برای توافق نهایی هستهای ایران و ۱+۵
چهار سناریو برای توافق نهایی هستهای ایران و ۱+۵ – حسین موسویان – تابناک – ۲۴ اسفند ۱۳۹۲