Gloria Andersen

13.10.2024

Seyed Hossein Mousavian is a former ambassador to Germany. He was a spokesman for Iran in the nuclear negotiations in the EU in 2005. He is now a researcher at Princeton University in the USA.
Iran has no interest in escalating the situation. The new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, wants to reduce tensions and focus on diplomacy and the economy, Hossein explains.
– Netanyahu is against this policy. That is one of the reasons he wants to drag Iran and the USA into a major war.
Iran has stated that they support a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction and will commit to this, according to Hossein.
 –Unless they are attacked.
For the question is not whether Iran can become a nuclear power. It’s about whether they want to. Previously, Iran has weighed the value of nuclear weapons against international reactions. Now the value of possessing “the world’s most powerful deterrent” may be greatest.
American intelligence estimates that it will take Iran about six months to build a bomb. Therefore, several Israeli officials believe that Israel must act now. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has said they have the “greatest opportunity in 50 years” to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
An attack on the nuclear facilities would create such a severe security situation that Iran would feel they have no choice:
– Then Iran could become a nuclear power, says Hossein.
But Israel cannot attack Iran’s nuclear facilities alone. Now, the fate lies in the hands of the USA, according to Hossein.

“The Worst Deal in History”

Experts agree that it is hard to avoid thinking about how the situation could have been different.

In 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the USA from the nuclear deal with Iran. Experts warned Trump against doing so, but he insisted that it was “the worst deal in history.”

Trump believed that the deal led to the international community pouring money into Iran and “financing terrorism.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Trump for making a “historic decision.”

This decision led Iran to begin developing nuclear facilities, points out Hossein.

https://www.aftenposten.no/sharedx/verden/i/3MmLKq/krisen-i-midtoesten-hvor-langt-unna-er-iran-fra-aa-bli-en-atomakt?pwsig2=4bd9fe80c599ff98f0ea2f10310435e42050bad4617d19e9cd0253a0871eddb3_1729498283

October 9, 2024

“Whether it takes a few weeks or a few months for Iran to obtain a nuclear warhead will not make a decisive difference in the outcome,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian diplomat who served on Iran’s nuclear negotiations team in the mid-2000s and is today a specialist at Princeton University‘s Program on Science and Global Security, told Newsweek.

“In the event of a military attack,” he added, “there will be no guarantee for the continuation of Iran’s peaceful nuclear program.”

Mousavian argued that former President Donald Trump‘s decision to exit the 2015 nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and the ensuing campaign of U.S. sanctions “led Iran to also develop its nuclear capabilities, turning it into a nuclear threshold state.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had always opposed the agreement, warning it did not go far enough to block Iran from producing a nuclear weapon. Now, Mousavian said that Israel, which is widely known to possess a covert nuclear arsenal, would not be capable of defeating Iran on its own without the aid of its U.S. ally and that such an outcome would only galvanize Iranian reconsiderations of its nuclear stance.

“Israel alone is not capable of a broad military confrontation with Iran unless the U.S. participates,” Mousavian said. “In such a scenario, Iran will likely become a nuclear state.”

https://www.newsweek.com/iran-nuclear-weapons-israel-attack-1966488

 “In 1992, when Israel assassinated Sayyed Abbas Musawi, the then leader of Hezbollah, American and Israeli newspaper headlines claimed that his assassination marked the beginning of the end for Hezbollah,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian Ambassador to Germany—who, in 2004, was the spokesperson for the Iranian negotiating team on nuclear enrichment—told me. “However, fourteen years later, in the 2006 war, Israel was, in effect, stalemated, and the world was shocked by Hezbollah’s new power.

The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, [the Hamas political leader Ismail] Haniyeh, and other commanders of Hezbollah and Hamas will spark the rise of a new generation of resistance, even more powerful and determined than today.” Many of Hezbollah’s jihadist forces, Mousavian said, lost family members in previous conflicts.

Mousavian is currently a visiting scholar at Princeton and no friend of the current Iranian regime. (By 2005, he had come into conflict with hard-liners led by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and cannot now return without risking prison.) Yet he sees a diplomatic opportunity for Iran here, too. “The new Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, came to the U.N. three days before Netanyahu, and spoke of a ‘new era,’ ” Mousavian said, “with Iran playing ‘an effective and constructive role in the evolving global order.’ ” Pezeshkian’s is not the only voice; Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is gathering political and economic power. Nevertheless, “relations with Israel go through Washington,” Mousavian said, and Pezeshkian’s offer should be tested. “The U.S. should open a broad dialogue, in which bilateral and regional issues are all on the table—including a renewed nuclear deal, a denuclearized Persian Gulf, ceasefire between Israel and Iran, a regional conventional-arms arrangement, and the security of the Persian Gulf.” He added, “I believe that Iran would respect a Palestinian decision, and if the Palestinians are on a pathway”—to a two-state solution—“then Iran would not impede or disturb it.”

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/why-netanyahu-wont-cease-fire

October 4, 2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBQR5JzX9Hk

All the parties involved in the Middle East crisis must immediately end military confrontation and prioritize diplomacy in order to maintain global stability, former Iranian Ambassador to Germany Seyed Hossein Mousavian told Sputnik.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20241003/all-sides-in-mideast-row-must-prioritize-diplomacy-to-maintain-global-stability—ex-envoy-1120392892.html

September 21, 2024

BBC, Hard Talk Arabic

يرى د. سيد حسين موسوفيان الدبلوماسي الإيراني السابق وخبير السياسات النووية وأمن الشرق الأوسط أنّ الإيرانيين ينظرون في حسابات مختلفة قبل الرد على اغتيال رئيس المكتب السياسي إسماعيل في طهران وتوقيته علما بأن إسرائيل لم تعترف باغتياله.هل يرى موسوفيان ثمة علاقة بين الحرب على غزة والبرنامج النووي الإيراني؟ مالذي يجعل أستدامة اتفاقيات إيران مع الغرب صعبا في رأيه؟ وماذا عن المفاوضات الأمريكية الإيرانية؟

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=A-mNmoZ5eyU&list=PLF614048CA3E017F0

بیست و چهارم سپتامبر 2024

حسین موسویان، دیپلمات و رئیس پیشین کمیته روابط خارجی شورای امنیت ایران در گفت وگویی با بخش عربی بی بی سی، در مورد شیوه و شرایطی صحبت کرده است که ایران در نظر می گیرد تا کشتن هنیه در تهران را تلافی کند. نورالدین زورقی، مجری برنامه بلاقیود (هاردتاک بی بی سی عربی) از او پرسید که چرا ایران تاکنون آنطور که گفته بود تلافی نکرده. این دیپلمات سابق ایران که حالا در امریکا زندگی می کند می‌گوید، تهران تلاش می کند که به گفته او در دام «نقشه‌های نتانیاهو» نیفتد: « واضح است که نه ایران و نه حزب‌الله، نه آمریکا، نه اروپا، نه جامعه بین‌المللی، هیچکدام خواهان درگیری منطقه‌ای نیستند و برای همین تمام تلاش خود را برای جلوگیری از یک جنگ منطقه‌ای به کار می‌برند». زمانی که مجری از او درباره دیپلماسی دولت پزشکیان برای گفت وگو با غرب پرسید، او گفت مذاکره برنامه دولت ابراهیم رییسی هم بود: «متاسفانه در ماه اکتبر که قرار بود ایران و آمریکا مذاکرات مستقیم را آغاز کنند، جنگ با غزه پیش آمد که همه چیز را تغییر داد». حسین موسویان این هفته در گفت وگوی ویژه بی بی سی.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iMy8hbZjR0

The Tällberg Foundation: A NEW IRAN?

During the summer, Iranians elected a new president: Masoud Pezeshkian, a cardiac surgeon, who is considered to be a political reformer. His victory surprised at least many foreign observers who are skeptical about all things Iranian, not the least that anyone could win an election against so-called hardliners. But Pezeshkian did exactly that. Did he win in spite of or with the support of Iran’s Supreme Leader and of the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guards? Can he cope with the profound challenges facing his country, domestically and internationally? Does he have the needed room to maneuver to reduce the crushing Western sanctions that make life so difficult for ordinary Iranians? What does “reformer” even mean in the complicated Iranian context? The best answers to those questions should probably come from an Iranian. Hossein Mousavian, a scholar and author at Princeton University, was a long-serving Iranian diplomat who worked on his country’s nuclear negotiations with the West, among other assignments. Listen as he describes the new President and assesses the possibility for new directions in Iran’s trajectory. Tell us what you think: should the West restart negotiations with Iran over its nuclear arms policies and reduce or even eliminate sanctions?

LISTEN TO THE PODCAST

Listen

https://tallbergfoundation.org/podcasts/a-new-iran

موسویان: در مورد برجام همه نگاه‌ها به رئیس‌جمهور بعدی آمریکاست

سه فاکتور مهم در استراتژی ایران برای پاسخ به ترور اسماعیل هنیه

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtEf3RtdFCk

https://www.isna.ir/news/1403060502314

موسویان در پاسخ به سئوالی در مورد شانس موفقیت مذاکرات جاری سه کشور آمریکا، قطر و مصر با اسرائیل و حماس گفت:  من متاسفانه خوشبین نیستم. نتانیاهو دنبال خرید زمان است تا انتخابات ریاست جمهوری آمریکا. او فکر میکند اگر ترامپ پیروز شود، اهدافش را بهتر به پیش خواهد برد. او با بحران داخلی، رای دیوان بین المللی دادگستری در مورد نسل کشی و احتمال بازداشت و فشار بیسابقه افکار عمومی جهان مواجه است. لذا او بدنبال کشاندن آمریکا به جنگ با ایران است. بعد از ترور اسماعیل هنیه نیز، اسرائیل بدنبال طولانی کردن مذاکرات آتش بس است تا پاسخ انتقامی ایران به تعویق افتد

مصر و آمریکا و قطر براساس طرح صلح بایدن مذاکرات را دنبال میکنند، طرحی که چند ماه قبل در ماه می ارائه شد، حماس آن را پذیرفت و نتانیاهو رد کرد. نتانیاهو یک روز بعد از طرح بایدن، گفت جنگ متوقف نمیشود تا اینکه اهداف اسرائیل تامین شود

حقیقت این است که تنها نتیجه ملموس و عملی بعد از طرح بایدن، ترور اسماعیل هنیه و بیشترکشته وآواره شدن فلسطینی ها و ادامه کمکهای تسلیحاتی آمریکا به اسرائیل بوده است. اخیرا هم آمریکا با صدور 20 میلیارد دلار تسلیحات به اسرائیل موافقت کرد

ایران نیز بدنبال یک پاسخ محکمی است که بازدارندگی آن بحدی قوی باشد تا مانع تکرار تجاوزات اسرائیل و نقض حاکمیت ملی ایران شود

https://www.entekhab.ir/003Ooc