Articles, Publications, مقاله ها

The Strategic Disaster of Leaving the Iran Deal

 

 

 

“Trump’s decision undoes the signature foreign policy achievement of his predecessor, Barack Obama, and represents an affront to the United States’ European allies, which had strongly lobbied the Trump administration to remain in the deal. But the more enduring impact will be in Tehran, where Trump’s nixing of the JCPOA—and Europe’s response—will push Iran’s leaders to move decisively into the camp of the United States’ geopolitical rivals. It will also shift the policy debate among Iran’s elites, who have for several years argued over the merits of dialogue with the United States. Now, that debate is settled. Iran has learned that negotiating with Washington is a dead end. Instead, it will seek to strengthen its ties with non-Western powers, including China and Russia.”

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“The Strategic Disaster of Leaving the Iran Deal,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Foreign Affairs, May 10, 2018.

 

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A dangerous new US-Iran escalation

“By trying to undo the JCPOA, Trump discredits the notion of US-Iran diplomatic engagement and radicalizes Iranian policies. Indeed, Trump has officially declared a regime-change policy towards Iran, as his speech made clear, setting himself on an all-out confrontational path against Iran. A dangerous new US-Iran escalation will now ensue, and it will have the real potential of resulting in a devastating war that will make the costs of the Iraq War pale in comparison.”

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“A dangerous new US-Iran escalation,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 9, 2018.

 

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Commentary: How Bullying Iran Could Backfire for Trump

“Implicit in Trump’s approach is that he can bully and pressure Iran into meeting his demands. However, the track record of U.S.-Iran relations since the 1979 Iranian revolution leaves little room to believe that Iran concedes to pressure. As a former Iranian diplomat who served as the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of Iran’s National Security and spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiating team, I know from firsthand experience that Tehran responds to pressure by doing everything it can to produce leverage for itself.”

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“Commentary: How Bullying Iran Could Backfire for Trump,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Reuters, May 1, 2018.

Essays, Publications

The Nuclear Deal: A Crossroad or Deadlock in Relations with Iran

“The nuclear agreement signed in 2015 marked a diplomatic triumph.
After agreeing to some of the most intrusive inspections in the history of
nuclear energy, Iran was granted a relieve from international sanctions.
The JCPOA between the P5+1, the EU, and Iran represents a triumphant
new method to approaching disagreements in the region and around the
world. Iran had signed an agreement with the US, who had not so long
ago labelled it as part of an “axis of evil.” Diplomacy, not war, won the
day. Now that this agreement is under threat due to President Trump’s
Iran policy, it is worthy of our time to examine the effects and the future
of the JCPOA.”

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“The Nuclear Deal: A Crossroad or Deadlock in Relations with Iran,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian and Younes Mahmoudieh, International Studies Journal, Spring 2018.

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Iran’s former diplomat suggests JCPOA model for talks with N.Korea

Hossein Mousavian put forward the suggestion through a speech that was delivered at the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), hosted by National Assembly of Republic of Korea on April 14-17 in Seoul. In the speech, Mousavian proposed using Iran’s nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as a model for any future negotiation with North Korea. The full text of Mousavian’s speech is as follows:

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“Iran’s former diplomat suggests JCPOA model for talks with N.Korea,” IRNA, April 18, 2018.

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5 potential scenarios for Iran deal

“President Donald Trump’s tapping of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton for secretary of state and national security adviser, respectively, should do away with any pretense that the US administration wishes to ‘fix’ the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). While Trump has long telegraphed his desire to undo the nuclear deal, Pompeo and especially Bolton have long advocated regime-change policies toward Iran, including war. As the May 12 deadline for Trump to renew sanctions waivers under the JCPOA approaches, five scenarios exist for how Trump’s ‘fix it or nix it’ saga on the accord will play out.”

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“5 potential scenarios for Iran deal,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Al Monitor, April 13, 2018.

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Yemen Heralds Potential Breakthrough for Iran-Saudi Relations (German & English)

“With European diplomatic backing, the Yemen conflict can be the beginning of dialogue and de-escalation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The template for a political solution both sides can agree on already exists; it would be the same formula that was successfully implemented in Afghanistan and Iraq. The critical factor that allowed the post-war governments of these countries to stabilize was the major outside players, mostly significantly Iran and the United States, agreeing upfront on a general end-state, and then allowing the details to be hashed out by the relevant parties.”

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“Yemen Heralds Potential Breakthrough for Iran-Saudi Relations,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Frankfurter Allgemeine, February 26, 2018.

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What Trump needs to know about Iranians

“In the lead-up to the revolution, Washington misread the domestic situation in Iran to dramatic consequence. It is of no surprise then that after 40 years of no American presence in Iran whatsoever, the misunderstandings that Trump administration officials have of Iranian society are greater and herald potentially graver consequences. As such, a better US understanding of Iran is of utmost necessity.”

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“What Trump needs to know about Iranians,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Al Monitor, February 19, 2018.

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The Widening Saudi–Iran Divide

“In order to decrease tensions and enter into a process of cooperation, Riyadh and Tehran must gain a correct understanding of each other’s national security threats. The cooperation option should entail Riyadh and Tehran to openly and without preconditions enter into bilateral dialogue and put all of their security concerns and aims on the negotiations table.”

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“The Widening Saudi–Iran Divide,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Cairo Review, Winter 2018.

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Dangerous Escalation: Why Trump’s Pressure Tactics Won’t Work on Iran

“In a paper for the Washington Quarterly’s Fall 2017 issue, we outlined the principal lessons offered by the nuclear negotiations for relations and future diplomatic engagement between Iran and the West. While Trump appears to believe that the United States can coerce Iran to its desired path, with only a matter of applying more pressure for a longer period, his untenable conditions to “fix” the JCPOA promise dangerous escalation.”

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“Dangerous Escalation: Why Trump’s Pressure Tactics Won’t Work on Iran,” The National Interest, Seyed Hossein Mousavian and Sina Toossi, February 8, 2018.