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A dangerous new US-Iran escalation

“By trying to undo the JCPOA, Trump discredits the notion of US-Iran diplomatic engagement and radicalizes Iranian policies. Indeed, Trump has officially declared a regime-change policy towards Iran, as his speech made clear, setting himself on an all-out confrontational path against Iran. A dangerous new US-Iran escalation will now ensue, and it will have the real potential of resulting in a devastating war that will make the costs of the Iraq War pale in comparison.”

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“A dangerous new US-Iran escalation,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 9, 2018.

 

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Commentary: How Bullying Iran Could Backfire for Trump

“Implicit in Trump’s approach is that he can bully and pressure Iran into meeting his demands. However, the track record of U.S.-Iran relations since the 1979 Iranian revolution leaves little room to believe that Iran concedes to pressure. As a former Iranian diplomat who served as the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of Iran’s National Security and spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiating team, I know from firsthand experience that Tehran responds to pressure by doing everything it can to produce leverage for itself.”

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“Commentary: How Bullying Iran Could Backfire for Trump,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Reuters, May 1, 2018.

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Iran’s former diplomat suggests JCPOA model for talks with N.Korea

Hossein Mousavian put forward the suggestion through a speech that was delivered at the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), hosted by National Assembly of Republic of Korea on April 14-17 in Seoul. In the speech, Mousavian proposed using Iran’s nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as a model for any future negotiation with North Korea. The full text of Mousavian’s speech is as follows:

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“Iran’s former diplomat suggests JCPOA model for talks with N.Korea,” IRNA, April 18, 2018.

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5 potential scenarios for Iran deal

“President Donald Trump’s tapping of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton for secretary of state and national security adviser, respectively, should do away with any pretense that the US administration wishes to ‘fix’ the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). While Trump has long telegraphed his desire to undo the nuclear deal, Pompeo and especially Bolton have long advocated regime-change policies toward Iran, including war. As the May 12 deadline for Trump to renew sanctions waivers under the JCPOA approaches, five scenarios exist for how Trump’s ‘fix it or nix it’ saga on the accord will play out.”

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“5 potential scenarios for Iran deal,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Al Monitor, April 13, 2018.

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Yemen Heralds Potential Breakthrough for Iran-Saudi Relations (German & English)

“With European diplomatic backing, the Yemen conflict can be the beginning of dialogue and de-escalation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The template for a political solution both sides can agree on already exists; it would be the same formula that was successfully implemented in Afghanistan and Iraq. The critical factor that allowed the post-war governments of these countries to stabilize was the major outside players, mostly significantly Iran and the United States, agreeing upfront on a general end-state, and then allowing the details to be hashed out by the relevant parties.”

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“Yemen Heralds Potential Breakthrough for Iran-Saudi Relations,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Frankfurter Allgemeine, February 26, 2018.

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What Trump needs to know about Iranians

“In the lead-up to the revolution, Washington misread the domestic situation in Iran to dramatic consequence. It is of no surprise then that after 40 years of no American presence in Iran whatsoever, the misunderstandings that Trump administration officials have of Iranian society are greater and herald potentially graver consequences. As such, a better US understanding of Iran is of utmost necessity.”

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“What Trump needs to know about Iranians,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Al Monitor, February 19, 2018.

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Dangerous Escalation: Why Trump’s Pressure Tactics Won’t Work on Iran

“In a paper for the Washington Quarterly’s Fall 2017 issue, we outlined the principal lessons offered by the nuclear negotiations for relations and future diplomatic engagement between Iran and the West. While Trump appears to believe that the United States can coerce Iran to its desired path, with only a matter of applying more pressure for a longer period, his untenable conditions to “fix” the JCPOA promise dangerous escalation.”

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“Dangerous Escalation: Why Trump’s Pressure Tactics Won’t Work on Iran,” The National Interest, Seyed Hossein Mousavian and Sina Toossi, February 8, 2018.

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Missile Dialogue Between Iran And The West

“In recent meetings with Iranian officials, I have consistently heard the same refrain: that with regime change the name of the game in Washington, the Trump White House wishes to eliminate Iran’s missile capacity and defensive capabilities simultaneous with scuttling the JCPOA and re-imposing nuclear sanctions, all to prepare the grounds for a military attack on Iran. The Europeans, meanwhile, are viewed as playing the ‘good cop’ to America’s ‘bad cop’ in pushing for missile negotiations.”

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“Missile Dialogue Between Iran And The West,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, LobeLog, January 29, 2018.

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Contrasting Leadership Styles In The Saudi-Iran Conflict

“Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) is steadily consolidating power in Riyadh and positioning himself to become the most powerful ruler in Saudi history. His rise has been accompanied with a ratcheting up of hostilities against Iran and even war rhetoric. As Saudi-Iran tensions increase, the lived experiences and leadership styles of the 78-year-old Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and 32-year-old MBS will decide the future of peace and stability in the region.”

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“Contrasting Leadership Styles In The Saudi-Iran Conflict,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, LobeLog, January 4, 2018.

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