When the civil war in Syria began in 2011, the U.S.-led bloc and its regional allies, including Saudi Arabia, devoted their resources to removing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, as the result of Iranian-Russian cooperation to buttress the Assad’s government, they failed to achieve their goals. The addition to this alliance of Turkey, which initially opposed Assad’s government, has further made it clear that President Assad has won the six-year war and will remain in power. If successful, the trilateral cooperation can play a more substantive role in managing other crises in the region.
Articles
Commentary: How to avoid U.S.-Iran conflict – and perhaps save the nuclear deal
European leaders also may be willing to make some concessions to Iran in the political and security domains to compensate for the loss of the benefits it was due under the accord. While Rouhani has expressed doubts over Europe’s package of economic incentives to preserve the agreement, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is continuing to work on securing financial, banking, and energy commitments from his counterparts from China, Russia, Germany, France, and the U.K.
Commentary: How to avoid U.S.-Iran: conflict – and perhaps save the nuclear deal
Making a nuclear deal with Trump: some advice for Kim Jong Un
“The DPRK’s core interest in negotiations with the United States and other world powers is to gain recognition of its legitimacy, secure incontrovertible security guarantees, and win the removal of barriers to its integration in regional and global economic structures. Achieving this requires a careful reading of U.S. foreign policy and America’s track record in negotiations with rival powers.”
“Making a nuclear deal with Trump: some advice for Kim Jong Un,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, NK News, June 5th, 2018.
US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE seriously pursuing regime change in Iran
“The Tel Aviv-Riyadh-Abu Dhabi triangle keeps telling the White House that they wouldn’t like the US to launch a war against Iran similar to the Iraq war; rather, as they say, a limited military operation would be enough to make Iran claw back its influence and presence in the region. Nevertheless, their covert objective is to start their move with limited military action that would trigger retaliation in kind by Iran, and this would eventually bring about a full-scale military conflict between the two countries.”
“US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE seriously pursuing regime change in Iran,” The Iran Project, May 29, 2018.
Pompeo’s Demands on Iran At Odds with Reality
“Secretary of State Mike Pompeo laid out a list of demands on Iran in a speech threatening to ‘crush’ the country on Monday. His bellicose words come weeks after President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal and are nothing short of an ultimatum demanding Iran’s total surrender to U.S. wishes … Pompeo’s twelve demands reflect a misunderstanding of Iranian foreign policy, international law, and the realities of the region.”
“Pompeo’s Demands on Iran At Odds with Reality,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, LobeLog, May 22, 2018.
The Strategic Disaster of Leaving the Iran Deal
“Trump’s decision undoes the signature foreign policy achievement of his predecessor, Barack Obama, and represents an affront to the United States’ European allies, which had strongly lobbied the Trump administration to remain in the deal. But the more enduring impact will be in Tehran, where Trump’s nixing of the JCPOA—and Europe’s response—will push Iran’s leaders to move decisively into the camp of the United States’ geopolitical rivals. It will also shift the policy debate among Iran’s elites, who have for several years argued over the merits of dialogue with the United States. Now, that debate is settled. Iran has learned that negotiating with Washington is a dead end. Instead, it will seek to strengthen its ties with non-Western powers, including China and Russia.”
“The Strategic Disaster of Leaving the Iran Deal,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Foreign Affairs, May 10, 2018.
A dangerous new US-Iran escalation
“By trying to undo the JCPOA, Trump discredits the notion of US-Iran diplomatic engagement and radicalizes Iranian policies. Indeed, Trump has officially declared a regime-change policy towards Iran, as his speech made clear, setting himself on an all-out confrontational path against Iran. A dangerous new US-Iran escalation will now ensue, and it will have the real potential of resulting in a devastating war that will make the costs of the Iraq War pale in comparison.”
“A dangerous new US-Iran escalation,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 9, 2018.
Commentary: How Bullying Iran Could Backfire for Trump
“Implicit in Trump’s approach is that he can bully and pressure Iran into meeting his demands. However, the track record of U.S.-Iran relations since the 1979 Iranian revolution leaves little room to believe that Iran concedes to pressure. As a former Iranian diplomat who served as the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of Iran’s National Security and spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiating team, I know from firsthand experience that Tehran responds to pressure by doing everything it can to produce leverage for itself.”
“Commentary: How Bullying Iran Could Backfire for Trump,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Reuters, May 1, 2018.
Iran’s former diplomat suggests JCPOA model for talks with N.Korea
Hossein Mousavian put forward the suggestion through a speech that was delivered at the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), hosted by National Assembly of Republic of Korea on April 14-17 in Seoul. In the speech, Mousavian proposed using Iran’s nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as a model for any future negotiation with North Korea. The full text of Mousavian’s speech is as follows:
“Iran’s former diplomat suggests JCPOA model for talks with N.Korea,” IRNA, April 18, 2018.
5 potential scenarios for Iran deal
“President Donald Trump’s tapping of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton for secretary of state and national security adviser, respectively, should do away with any pretense that the US administration wishes to ‘fix’ the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). While Trump has long telegraphed his desire to undo the nuclear deal, Pompeo and especially Bolton have long advocated regime-change policies toward Iran, including war. As the May 12 deadline for Trump to renew sanctions waivers under the JCPOA approaches, five scenarios exist for how Trump’s ‘fix it or nix it’ saga on the accord will play out.”
Read More
“5 potential scenarios for Iran deal,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Al Monitor, April 13, 2018.
