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Articles

Eight Reasons Why [Kenneth] Waltz Theory On Nuclear Iran Is Wrong

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In a recent influential article in Foreign Affairs, Kenneth Waltz has challenged the conventional wisdom on Iran’s nuclear program and asserted that Iran “should get the bomb.” Written by one of America’s most influential international-relations theorists, Waltz’s article makes a strong case for Iranian nuclear proliferation. He argues that this would bring more stability to the Middle East by ending Israel’s destabilizing nuclear monopoly and introducing a much-needed nuclear balance in the turbulent region.

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“Eight Reasons Why [Kenneth] Waltz Theory On Nuclear Iran Is Wrong,” co-written with Kaveh Afrasiabi, Al Monitor, July 16, 2012.

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The Iranian Nuclear Dispute: Origins and Current Options

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After a pause of more than a year, the seven countries that are holding talks on Iran’s nuclear program resumed their discussions in April, with subsequent meetings in May and June. As the countries—Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States)—prepare for their next meetings, efforts to find pathways to a resolution need to take into account the origins of Iran’s nuclear program and the sources of the ongoing dispute over it.

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“The Iranian Nuclear Dispute: Origins and Current Options,” Arms Control Today, July/August 2012.

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How to Stop the Lose-Lose Game

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Although the nuclear talks in Moscow did not achieve concrete results, there is still time to get past the nuclear impasse. The Obama administration clearly isn’t interested in offering the Islamic Republic the kind of concessions that would allow it to back down. The key questions now are: Will President Obama, if reelected in November, be more flexible? And will Iran muster confidence that Obama can get U.S. political support for any agreement?

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“How to Stop the Lose-Lose Game,” co-written with Ali Shabani, National Interest, June 26, 2012.

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US Should Ease Sanctions, Recognize Iran Enrichment Rights

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The countries that make up the P5+1 (United States, Russia, France, Britain, China and Germany) consider Iran a major threat to non-proliferation and international peace and security. At the same time, these countries, which collectively possess more than 98% of the world’s nuclear weapons, admit that Iran neither possesses a single nuclear bomb nor has made the decision to make one.

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“US Should Ease Sanctions, Recognize Iran Enrichment Rights,” Al Monitor, June 14, 2012.

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There is an Alternative to the Iran Impasse

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In early 2005 Dr Hassan Rowhani, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, told me of the Iranian supreme leader’s position on nuclear enrichment. Ali Khamenei had told him: “I would never abandon the rights of the country as long as I am alive. I would resign if for any reason Iran is deprived of its rights to enrichment, otherwise this may happen after my death.”

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“There is an Alternative to the Iran Impasse,” Financial Times, May 22, 2012.

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Critical Threshold in the Iran Crisis

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Unfortunately, the newly built trust between Iran and the 5+1 powers is in danger of collapse because of the unreasonable insistence by hawkish politicians and pundits in the West who echo Tel Aviv’s demands that Iran halt all enrichment activities and shut down the underground Fordo facility, even though the I.A.E.A. inspects it regularly.

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“Critical Threshold in the Iran Crisis,” co-written with Kaveh Afrasiabi, New York Times, May 12, 2012.

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Backed Into a Corner

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The Obama administration has done more to undermine Iran over the past three years than any U.S. presidency in the 33 years since the Iranian revolution. Under the shadow of a policy of “engagement,” the United States and Israel have led a campaign of economic, cyber, and covert war against Iran. Yet this coercive approach, conducted along with sporadic negotiations on nuclear issues between Iran and the P5+1 group of China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States has failed to resolve the future of Iran’s nuclear program.

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“Backed Into a Corner,” Foreign Policy, April 13, 2012.

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How the U.S.-Iran Standoff Looks From Iran

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The past six U.S. presidents have employed a policy of sanctions, containment and deterrence against Iran. Earlier in his tenure, President Barack Obama tried to change course by offering instead to engage, stressing “diplomacy without preconditions.” Two years later, however, the talk in Washington is of an inevitable coming war.

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“How the U.S.-Iran Standoff Looks From Iran,” Bloomberg View, February 16, 2012.