Articles, Publications

Nuclear Options for Iran’s New President (Arabic)

ستكون هناك فرصة أكبر لتحقيق انفراجة دبلوماسية في الجمود بشأن البرنامج النووي الإيراني خلال الولاية الثانية للرئيس الأميركي باراك أوباما، الذي طالب القادة الإيرانيين، في خطاب حالة الاتحاد لعام 2013، بـ«الاعتراف بأن هذا هو الوقت المناسب للتوصل إلى حل دبلوماسي». وعلاوة على ذلك، يأتي فوز كبير المفاوضين النوويين الإيرانيين حسن روحاني بانتخابات الرئاسة الإيرانية الشهر الماضي ليقدم آفاقا جديدة للمفاوضات.

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“Nuclear Options for Iran’s New President,” Hossein Mousavian, Asharq Al-Awsat, July 9, 2013. (Arabic)

Articles, Publications

Next Iranian President Faces Economic, Foreign Policy Tests

For Iranians, the election is about the economy first, foreign policy second. The economic challenges include inflation, unemployment and devaluation of the national currency. Inflation is disproportionately hurting the lower and middle classes. While Iran’s Central Bank reports that the inflation rate for 2012 has been 27.4%, Steve Hanke, professor of Applied Economics at The Johns Hopkins University and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington estimates that Iran experienced an inflation rate of 110% for the same period. This is quadruple the rate reported by the Central Bank.

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به ادامه مطلب

“Next Iranian President Faces Economic, Foreign Policy Tests,” Hossein Mousavian, Al-Monitor, May 28, 2013.

Essays, Publications

La questione nucleare vista da Teheran: ipotesi di negoziato (Italian)

Dopo un decennio di stallo sulla questione nucleare, per trovare una soluzione è necessario avere ben chiare le cause di fondo dell’attuale crisi e l’eredità della storia. Prima della rivoluzione islamica del 1979, i paesi occidentali – e in particolare gli Stati Uniti – mantenevano ottimi rapporti con l’Iran e facevano a gara per aggiudicarsi i redditizi progetti di nuclearizzazione del paese, gettando così le basi per lo sviluppo della sua potenza atomica. In quel periodo, l’Occidente sosteneva che la tecnologia nucleare era di fondamentale importanza per Teheran. Nel 1976, il presidente Gerald Ford firmò una direttiva che consentiva all’Iran di acquisire la tecnologia necessaria a sviluppare un ciclo nucleare completo. Nel documento si legge: “L’introduzione dell’energia nucleare provvederà al crescente fabbisogno energetico dell’economia iraniana e renderà le riserve petrolifere del paese disponibili per l’esportazione o la trasformazione in prodotti petrolchimici”.

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“La questione nucleare vista da Teheran: ipotesi di negoziato,” Hossein Mousavian, Aspenia, issue no. 60, pgs. 62-70. Published by the Aspen Institute, March 2013, (Italian).

Essays, Publications

Globalizing Iran’s Fatwa Against Nuclear Weapons

Over a decade of negotiations between Iran and various world powers over Tehran’s nuclear programme have yielded little or no progress. Although all parties seek a peaceful resolution to this quagmire through diplomacy, all the major demands of the P5+1 (the permanent members of the UN Security Council – the United States, Russia, China, France and the UK – plus Germany) go beyond the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and its Safeguard Agreement, the only viable and legitimate international framework for non-proliferation. In 2011, I proposed a peaceful solution based on the 2005 fatwa (religious decree) of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei banning the acquisition, production and use of nuclear weapons, and in 2012 Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi declared Iran’s willingness to transform the fatwa ‘into a legally binding, official document in the UN’, to secularise what many in the West see as a purely religious decree.1 Such a step would provide a sustainable legal and political umbrella for Iran to accept required measures; facilitate transparency and confidence-building measures; and help address doubts in the West about the commitment to the principles expressed in the fatwa in the context of Iran’s system of government, where politics and religion are intertwined.

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“Globalizing Iran’s Fatwa Against Nuclear Weapons,” Hossein Mousavian, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 55:2, 147-162. Published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), April 8, 2013.

 

Articles, Publications

Twelve Major Consequences of Sanctions on Iran

Sanctions, whether unilateral or multilateral, have been the United States’ core policy on Iran since the 1979 revolution. President Barack Obama entered office confirming that he intended to pursue a policy of engagement with Tehran. During his tenure, however, the United States has orchestrated its harshest sanctions to date against Iran.

“Twelve Major Consequences of Sanctions on Iran,” Hossein Mousavian, Al-Monitor, May 3, 2013.

Articles, Publications

US Military Threats Toward Iran Do Not Work

Statements by the US officials threatening to attack Iran militarily are ineffectual if not counterproductive. On March 3 at the annual AIPAC conference, Vice President Joe Biden threatened military intervention and declared, “We mean it. And let me repeat it: We … mean it.” Biden’s approach was in line with Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu’s message to the same conference asserting that only credible military threat will stop Iran from pursuing its nuclear program.

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“US Military Threats Toward Iran Do Not Work,” Hossein Mousavian and Shahir Shahidsaless, April 18, 2013.
Articles, Publications

Iran wants a nuclear deal, not war

To stop Iran achieving “critical capability” to produce nuclear weapons in the coming months, President Obama must impose “maximal” sanctions – that is the message of a new report issued in Washington by five senior non-proliferation specialists. They call on Obama to implement a de facto international embargo on all investments in, and trade with, Iran, declaring: “A successful outcome in any negotiations with Iran depends on the immediate implementation of these sanctions, along with simultaneously reinforcing the credibility of President Obama’s threat to use military force, if necessary, to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”

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“Iran wants a nuclear deal, not war”, Hossein Mousavian, the Guardian, January 21, 2013.

Articles, Publications

Closing Iran’s Nuclear File

The next six to 24 months are going to be the most vital period for Iran-US relations on both the nuclear dilemma and US-Iran relations. Eleven years of diplomatic negotiations on the Iranian nuclear dossier have failed. While the world powers and Iran are working on the next meeting to happen soon, the most critical question remains as to whether a feasible deal is plausible? Under President Obama’s leadership, the most comprehensive sanctions and punitive measures have been imposed on Iran, while Iran, in response, has accelerated its nuclear program.

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“Closing Iran’s Nuclear File”, Hossein Mousavian, Al Monitor, January 3, 2013.

Articles, Publications

Red line on Iran: No, here are Netanyahu’s real objectives

Although US officials do not believe Iran has decided to build a nuclear bomb, Israel has gone into overdrive to convince the world that Iran is on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon and must have all its uranium enrichment activities stopped by all means possible, including the military option. Under Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership, these efforts thus far have not garnered much support.

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“Red line on Iran: No, here are Netanyahu’s real objectives,” Boston Globe, October 9, 2012