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Dangerous Escalation: Why Trump’s Pressure Tactics Won’t Work on Iran

“In a paper for the Washington Quarterly’s Fall 2017 issue, we outlined the principal lessons offered by the nuclear negotiations for relations and future diplomatic engagement between Iran and the West. While Trump appears to believe that the United States can coerce Iran to its desired path, with only a matter of applying more pressure for a longer period, his untenable conditions to “fix” the JCPOA promise dangerous escalation.”

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“Dangerous Escalation: Why Trump’s Pressure Tactics Won’t Work on Iran,” The National Interest, Seyed Hossein Mousavian and Sina Toossi, February 8, 2018.

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Missile Dialogue Between Iran And The West

“In recent meetings with Iranian officials, I have consistently heard the same refrain: that with regime change the name of the game in Washington, the Trump White House wishes to eliminate Iran’s missile capacity and defensive capabilities simultaneous with scuttling the JCPOA and re-imposing nuclear sanctions, all to prepare the grounds for a military attack on Iran. The Europeans, meanwhile, are viewed as playing the ‘good cop’ to America’s ‘bad cop’ in pushing for missile negotiations.”

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“Missile Dialogue Between Iran And The West,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, LobeLog, January 29, 2018.

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The wrong way to address Iran’s missile program

“[T]o discriminate against Iran for its military capabilities while US officials insist on policies of ‘regime change’ and ‘all options on the table’ signals to Iranian decision-makers that the United States seeks to weaken Iran’s means of deterrence to more easily attack it. This, in turn, compels Tehran to invest more in developing effective deterrents. This steers the United States and Iran into an escalatory cycle that could lead to disastrous conflict.”

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“The wrong way to address Iran’s missile program,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Al Monitor, November 21, 2017.

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Assessing the state of the Iran nuclear deal

“There has now been one year of successful Iranian implementation of the JCPOA despite repeated US violations of the spirit of the deal. However, the Trump administration’s saberrattling over Iranian missile tests is set to undo the deal, while its new sanctions under the umbrella of human rights, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction and regional issues are bringing tensions between the US and Iran to dangerous new heights.”

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“Assessing the state of the Iran nuclear deal,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, The Security Times, February 2017.