Publications

Articles, Publications

Next Iranian President Faces Economic, Foreign Policy Tests

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For Iranians, the election is about the economy first, foreign policy second. The economic challenges include inflation, unemployment and devaluation of the national currency. Inflation is disproportionately hurting the lower and middle classes. While Iran’s Central Bank reports that the inflation rate for 2012 has been 27.4%, Steve Hanke, professor of Applied Economics at The Johns Hopkins University and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington estimates that Iran experienced an inflation rate of 110% for the same period. This is quadruple the rate reported by the Central Bank.

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“Next Iranian President Faces Economic, Foreign Policy Tests,” Hossein Mousavian, Al-Monitor, May 28, 2013.

Articles, Publications

3 factors set to rescue Iran nuclear talks

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The west is eagerly awaiting the results of the upcoming June presidential elections in Iran to determine whom they will be working with in Tehran for the foreseeable future. Certainly the nuclear issue will remain a high priority for world powers and Iran. Over a decade of negotiations with Tehran, world powers have challenged Iran’s legitimate rights for enrichment under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), yielding no outcome. The world powers have continued hitting the hammer on the same nail and it is time for a renewed look at the status quo.

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“3 factors set to rescue Iran nuclear talks,” Hossein Mousavian, Asharq Al-Awsat, May 19, 2013.

Essays, Publications

La questione nucleare vista da Teheran: ipotesi di negoziato (Italian)

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Dopo un decennio di stallo sulla questione nucleare, per trovare una soluzione è necessario avere ben chiare le cause di fondo dell’attuale crisi e l’eredità della storia. Prima della rivoluzione islamica del 1979, i paesi occidentali – e in particolare gli Stati Uniti – mantenevano ottimi rapporti con l’Iran e facevano a gara per aggiudicarsi i redditizi progetti di nuclearizzazione del paese, gettando così le basi per lo sviluppo della sua potenza atomica. In quel periodo, l’Occidente sosteneva che la tecnologia nucleare era di fondamentale importanza per Teheran. Nel 1976, il presidente Gerald Ford firmò una direttiva che consentiva all’Iran di acquisire la tecnologia necessaria a sviluppare un ciclo nucleare completo. Nel documento si legge: “L’introduzione dell’energia nucleare provvederà al crescente fabbisogno energetico dell’economia iraniana e renderà le riserve petrolifere del paese disponibili per l’esportazione o la trasformazione in prodotti petrolchimici”.

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“La questione nucleare vista da Teheran: ipotesi di negoziato,” Hossein Mousavian, Aspenia, issue no. 60, pgs. 62-70. Published by the Aspen Institute, March 2013, (Italian).

Essays, Publications

Globalizing Iran’s Fatwa Against Nuclear Weapons

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Over a decade of negotiations between Iran and various world powers over Tehran’s nuclear programme have yielded little or no progress. Although all parties seek a peaceful resolution to this quagmire through diplomacy, all the major demands of the P5+1 (the permanent members of the UN Security Council – the United States, Russia, China, France and the UK – plus Germany) go beyond the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and its Safeguard Agreement, the only viable and legitimate international framework for non-proliferation. In 2011, I proposed a peaceful solution based on the 2005 fatwa (religious decree) of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei banning the acquisition, production and use of nuclear weapons, and in 2012 Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi declared Iran’s willingness to transform the fatwa ‘into a legally binding, official document in the UN’, to secularise what many in the West see as a purely religious decree.1 Such a step would provide a sustainable legal and political umbrella for Iran to accept required measures; facilitate transparency and confidence-building measures; and help address doubts in the West about the commitment to the principles expressed in the fatwa in the context of Iran’s system of government, where politics and religion are intertwined.

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“Globalizing Iran’s Fatwa Against Nuclear Weapons,” Hossein Mousavian, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 55:2, 147-162. Published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), April 8, 2013.

 

Articles, Publications

Ten consequences of US covert war against Iran

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Washington believed that covert action against Iran’s nuclear facilities would be more effective and less risky than an all-out war, which could force Tehran to retaliate across the region and divert its current peaceful nuclear programme toward weaponisation. In fact, Mark Fitzpatrick, former deputy assistant secretary of state for non-proliferation said: “Industrial sabotage is a way to stop the programme, without military action, without fingerprints on the operation, and really, it is ideal, if it works.”

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“Ten consequences of US covert war against Iran,” Hossein Mousavian, Gulf News, May 11, 2013.

Articles, Publications

Five Reasons the US Should Stay Out Of Syria

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The Syria war and the Iranian nuclear standoff dominate the international agenda, with an urgent need to find a viable solution. The visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi to Damascus and Amman last week revealed that Iran too is giving Syria priority. Salehi met with King Abdullah II of Jordan on May 7 en route to Damascus for meetings with officials there, including President Bashar al-Assad, emphasizing the need for national “Syrian-Syrian” talks to bring an end to the civil war ravaging the Muslim country. Simultaneously, the US Secretary of State John Kerry, looking to put an end to Russian support for Assad in Syria, was met with a cool reception in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin kept Kerry waiting three hours before their meeting at the Kremlin and continuously fiddled with his pen as the top US diplomat spoke about the ongoing crisis in Syria.

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“Five Reasons the US Should Stay Out Of Syria,” Hossein Mousavian, Al-Monitor, May 10, 2013.

Articles, Publications

Twelve Major Consequences of Sanctions on Iran

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Sanctions, whether unilateral or multilateral, have been the United States’ core policy on Iran since the 1979 revolution. President Barack Obama entered office confirming that he intended to pursue a policy of engagement with Tehran. During his tenure, however, the United States has orchestrated its harshest sanctions to date against Iran.

“Twelve Major Consequences of Sanctions on Iran,” Hossein Mousavian, Al-Monitor, May 3, 2013.

Articles, Publications

US Military Threats Toward Iran Do Not Work

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Statements by the US officials threatening to attack Iran militarily are ineffectual if not counterproductive. On March 3 at the annual AIPAC conference, Vice President Joe Biden threatened military intervention and declared, “We mean it. And let me repeat it: We … mean it.” Biden’s approach was in line with Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu’s message to the same conference asserting that only credible military threat will stop Iran from pursuing its nuclear program.

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“US Military Threats Toward Iran Do Not Work,” Hossein Mousavian and Shahir Shahidsaless, April 18, 2013.
Articles, Publications

A Seven-Point Plan to Prevent The Collapse of Syria

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Since March 2011, 70,000 Syrian civilians, military, government officials and opposition forces have been killed, 3 million have been displaced and 1.1 million Syrians have become refugees — plunging the country into turmoil and placing the security of the whole region at risk. The Syrian instability is dragging the country toward the throes of all out civil war, sectarian war and ultimately disintegration. If no immediate and robust actions are taken, this process could set into motion a chain of events that would pose a grave threat to the stability of the entire Middle East and beyond.

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“A Seven-Point Plan to Prevent The Collapse of Syria”, Hossein Mousavian, Al-Monitor, April 7, 2013.

Articles, Publications

Iran nuclear talks: Citizen diplomacy would build trust

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After 34 years of hostilities between Iran and the United States, there is now an opportunity for settling their mutual differences. The Obama administration has reiterated its willingness to engage in direct bilateral talks with Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has responded to this overture by indicating that Iran would be open to talks when America “proves its goodwill.” And even so, the next round of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 world powers begins today in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

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“Iran nuclear talks: Citizen diplomacy would build trust”, Hossein Mousavian and William Miller, Christian Science Monitor, April 5, 2013.