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The Iran nuclear dilemma: the peaceful use of nuclear energy and the NPT’s main objectives

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Note: “The Iran nuclear dilemma: the peaceful use of nuclear energy and the NPT’s main objectives,” by Hossein Mousavian was published in Harald Müller & Daniel Müller (Eds.). WMD Arms Control in the Middle East: Prospects, Obstacles and Options (pp. 35—42). Published by Ashgate Publishing (02/2015).

The Middle East is a hot spot of proliferation. It contains one state assumed to possess nuclear weapons, several states that tried and failed to develop a military nuclear capability, one state under suspicion of trying to do so, and it is the world region that witnessed the most frequent and severe employment of chemical weapons since the end of World War I. Notwithstanding, not a single arms control regime concerning weapons of mass destruction (WMD) covers the region as a whole. Instead we have seen several proliferation-related military operations which have rather contributed to destabilization than served non-proliferation. This volume, written under the auspices of the EU Consortium for Non-Proliferation and Disarmament determines the current state of diplomatic efforts to establish a WMD free zone in the Middle East. In doing so, it provides insights into central actors’ conflicting political positions, thereby explaining the stalemate of efforts to negotiate a WMD-free zone. Chapters written by renowned experts from academia and policy-oriented think tanks, as well as by next-generation Middle East and arms control experts, introduce the subject to the reader, give background information about arms control initiatives, provide technical expertise, and endeavour to make proposals for arms control measures in support of the creation of a Middle East WMD-free zone.

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“The Iran nuclear dilemma: the peaceful use of nuclear energy and the NPT’s main objectives,” Hossein Mousavian in Harald Müller & Daniel Müller (Eds.). WMD Arms Control in the Middle East: Prospects, Obstacles and Options (pp. 35—42). Published by Ashgate Publishing (02/2015).

Articles, Publications

Iran nuclear talks: The 5 options for what happens if they fail

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As Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, prepares to criticise President Obama’s nuclear talks with Iran in a controversial address to Congress on Tuesday, those negotiations have been making unprecedented progress.

It is realistic that an agreement will be reached by the end of March deadline: Iran has been willing to accept restrictions on its nuclear programme which ensure that it is verifiably transparent and which cut off all potential pathways to developing a nuclear weapon.

If, however, political pressure, whether from Israel or Congress, leads to a failure to reach any kind of nuclear agreement by the end of March, then negotiators will be faced with five options.

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“Iran nuclear talks: The 5 options for what happens if they fail,” Hossein Mousavian, The Telegraph, March 3, 2015.

Articles, Publications

Would Iran deal set new nuclear proliferation standard?

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Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, arrived in Geneva Feb. 21 to hold bilateral meetings with US Secretary of State John Kerry and US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz. Hossein Fereydoun, President Hassan Rouhani’s senior adviser, is also accompanying the Iranian negotiation team to facilitate consultations and coordination. This is the highest level of talks between Iran and the United States since the 1979 revolution. The nuclear talks between Iran and the world powers are at a most critical moment — and in their final phase — and the chance for a final deal is likely more than 50%.

Recently, Henry Kissinger, the former US secretary of state and national security adviser whose knowledge of national security matters is often viewed as paramount in certain Washington circles, has attempted to cast unwarranted criticism on efforts to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear dispute. “The impact of this approach will be to move from preventing proliferation to managing it,” Kissinger said of the ongoing diplomatic efforts. “And if the other countries in the region conclude that America has approved the development of an enrichment capability within one year of a nuclear weapon, and if they then insist on building the same capability, we will live in a proliferated world in which everybody — even if that agreement is maintained — will be very close to the trigger point.”

Kissinger’s assessment reflects a beleaguered understanding of the current status of the nuclear negotiations and the history of Iran’s nuclear program, as well as the realities of the current international system in regard to nuclear proliferation.

The key to understanding the nuclear proliferation issue is to have a firm grasp of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) that has as its goal reducing the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, as well as nuclear weapons disarmament on behalf of the nuclear weapons powers.

Over the years, many nations signatory to the treaty, on both sides of the nuclear weapons divide, have been in technical violation of their obligations under the NPT. There have been at least five states — Brazil, Argentina, Egypt, South Korea and Taiwan — that have engaged in clandestine nuclear programs without notifying the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The nuclear weapons states, too, have oftentimes been negligent in their obligation to dismantle their nuclear weapons and in many cases have actually upgraded their warheads and increased their number. In the case of Iran, there has also arguably been a significant double standard.

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“Would Iran deal set new nuclear proliferation standard?” Hossein Mousavian, Al Monitor, February 22, 2015.

Articles, Publications

36 years after the revolution, where is Iran now?

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The Iranian nation toppled the US-backed Pahlavi regime in 1979, ending virtually 2,500 years of monarchical rule, and will see nationwide rallies on Feb. 11, the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. In the 36 years since mass protests deposed the monarchy in Iran, the country has struggled with immense challenges. After the Islamic Republic’s establishment by way of a popular referendum, Iran endured a period of chaotic instability, with various armed factions seeking to undermine the nascent government.

Yet, despite all of these crises, Iran has persevered. It emerged from the Iran-Iraq War without giving up an inch of its soil in spite of the all-out support given to the aggressor by the superpowers and even regional Arab countries. It also did this without resorting to the use of chemical weapons, even as it had the capability to do so, as the country is signatory to all weapons of mass destruction conventions. Iran has since managed to become one of the rare countries able to maintain its political-security independence and foster an atmosphere of socio-economic self-reliance in a nation that was once so incredibly dependent on outside powers.

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“36 years after the revolution, where is Iran now?” Hossein Mousavian, Al Monitor, February 11, 2015.

Articles, Publications

Iran ready for a nuclear deal: Column

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In January, Iran and major powers ended five days of nuclear talks in Geneva and Paris, including lengthy meetings between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Negotiators made “limited progress” at nuclear talks, agreed to step up efforts and meet in February.

Every keen observer of the Iranian scene is fully aware that this progress has enjoyed the blessing — and explicit open support— of the Supreme Leader . Tehran has already made good on its resolve to reach a comprehensive, lasting deal.

The onus is now on the other sides on the two sticky points: Iran’s enrichment capacity and the timetable for lifting sanctions. Given that the contract with Russia to provide fuel for the Bushehr power plant expires in 2021, a 5-7 year limit on the current operational centrifuges would enable Iran to produce the needed fuel domestically on time. Will President Obama exhibit the necessary audacity and decide on the Iran’s practical enrichment capacity and lifting of the UN, multilateral and unilateral sanctions before his departure?

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“Iran ready for a nuclear deal: Column,” Hossein Mousavian, USA Today, February 6, 2015.

Articles, Publications

Extremism, Terrorism Ultimate Winners of Charlie Hebdo Episode

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Extremism is the ultimate winner in the controversy over Charlie Hebdo’s publication of the latest cartoon with the support of the French government and other Western powers. Regrettably, the latest provocation and blatant hypocrisy of the West on the issue of freedom of expression will further the cause of the terrorists and lend support to their claim that Western powers have waged an all-out war against Islam. Furthermore, terrorist groups such as ISIS, who regard themselves the vanguard of Muslims, Islamic values and Quranic teachings would certainly celebrate new recruitments in thousands.

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“Extremism, Terrorism Ultimate Winners of Charlie Hebdo Episode,” Hossein Mousavian, IRNA, January 24, 2015.