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Ten Reasons Iran Doesn’t Want the Bomb

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Since the beginning of Iran’s nuclear crisis, the West has been convinced that one approach offers the best hope of altering Tehran’s nuclear policy and halting its enrichment activities: comprehensive international sanctions and a credible threat of military strike. During the same period, I have repeatedly warned my friends in the West that such punitive pressures, no matter how severe, will not change the Iranian leadership’s mindset, and that a military option would be catastrophic for Iran, the region and beyond.

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“Ten Reasons Iran Doesn’t Want the Bomb,” National Interest, December 4, 2012.

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Obama must offer a ‘grand deal’ with Iran on its nuclear program

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For Iran, the nuclear crisis has become the most important national security and foreign policy challenge since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. The country may not be losing hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians to a hot war. But it is enduring the most severe sanctions in its history, foreign assassinations of its scientists, and international pressure that has shaken the foundation of its relations regionally, and with Western and Eastern powers. It would not be unrealistic to conclude that Iran has already paid the price for a nuclear bomb.

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“Obama must offer a ‘grand deal’ with Iran on its nuclear program,” The Christian Science Monitor, November 28, 2012.

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Iran and Hamas Winners In Gaza Conflict

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The eight-day conflict between Hamas and Israel has ended in a cease-fire. Although shorter than Operation Cast Lead in 2008-09, the latest Israeli Operation Pillar of Defense was nevertheless devastating. Israeli naval and air bombardments killed 165 and wounded 1,200 Palestinians, while damage to Gaza’s infrastructure amounted to $1.2 billion. The rockets fired from Gaza resulted in five Israeli deaths and scores wounded.

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“Iran and Hamas Winners In Gaza Conflict,” Al-Monitor, November 27, 2012.

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Red line on Iran: No, here are Netanyahu’s real objectives

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Although US officials do not believe Iran has decided to build a nuclear bomb, Israel has gone into overdrive to convince the world that Iran is on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon and must have all its uranium enrichment activities stopped by all means possible, including the military option. Under Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership, these efforts thus far have not garnered much support.

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“Red line on Iran: No, here are Netanyahu’s real objectives,” Boston Globe, October 9, 2012

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Iran-U.S. Hostilities Must Stop

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President Obama’s policy of engagement with Iran has failed. Recent steps have led to unprecedented hostilities between the two countries with Washington conducting a full-scale economic, covert, cyber and political war with Iran. Yet these measures have not quenched the thirst of the electorate, as both presidential candidates continue the trend of past election campaigns by competing to see who can deliver a more hostile posture toward Iran.

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“Iran-U.S. Hostilities Must Stop”, National Interest, September 20, 2012.

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Twenty Reasons not to Attack Iran

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Recent news stories have detailed disagreements between Israeli and U.S. assessments of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and intentions. While it would appear that for now the United States does not share the apparent Israeli desire for military action toward Iran, President Obama has done everything possible to prevent the Iranians from having the ability to produce a nuclear weapon at will.

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“Twenty Reasons not to Attack Iran,” Reuters, August 23, 2012.

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Eight Reasons Why [Kenneth] Waltz Theory On Nuclear Iran Is Wrong

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In a recent influential article in Foreign Affairs, Kenneth Waltz has challenged the conventional wisdom on Iran’s nuclear program and asserted that Iran “should get the bomb.” Written by one of America’s most influential international-relations theorists, Waltz’s article makes a strong case for Iranian nuclear proliferation. He argues that this would bring more stability to the Middle East by ending Israel’s destabilizing nuclear monopoly and introducing a much-needed nuclear balance in the turbulent region.

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“Eight Reasons Why [Kenneth] Waltz Theory On Nuclear Iran Is Wrong,” co-written with Kaveh Afrasiabi, Al Monitor, July 16, 2012.

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The Iranian Nuclear Dispute: Origins and Current Options

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After a pause of more than a year, the seven countries that are holding talks on Iran’s nuclear program resumed their discussions in April, with subsequent meetings in May and June. As the countries—Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States)—prepare for their next meetings, efforts to find pathways to a resolution need to take into account the origins of Iran’s nuclear program and the sources of the ongoing dispute over it.

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“The Iranian Nuclear Dispute: Origins and Current Options,” Arms Control Today, July/August 2012.

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How to Stop the Lose-Lose Game

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Although the nuclear talks in Moscow did not achieve concrete results, there is still time to get past the nuclear impasse. The Obama administration clearly isn’t interested in offering the Islamic Republic the kind of concessions that would allow it to back down. The key questions now are: Will President Obama, if reelected in November, be more flexible? And will Iran muster confidence that Obama can get U.S. political support for any agreement?

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“How to Stop the Lose-Lose Game,” co-written with Ali Shabani, National Interest, June 26, 2012.